Tariffs and Controls in Flux: SCOTUS Showdown, Japan Reset, and Commerce’s 2025 Roadmap
NEWSLETTER | Trade Insight AI
Commerce Lays Out 2025 Timeline for Export Controls, AD Changes
STR Trade Report • September 12, 2025
Commerce’s semiannual regulatory agenda outlines a dense 2025 pipeline, with rules expected on cloud/data center services, quantum and advanced-computing/semiconductor items, UAS and large connected vehicles, firearms exports, STA simplification, rare earths/strategic metals, seafood import requirements, and Russia/Belarus sanctions clarifications—plus liberalized defense trade with the UK and Australia. The docket also signals an ANPR to revisit antidumping methodologies (unaffiliated reseller “all-others” rate and average-to-transaction analyses) and a rule on terminating Section 232 investigations, indicating potential shifts for trade remedies. Several actions were recently completed (in-transit shipment rules, standards-setting participation, connected-vehicle import restrictions, Pakistan licensing, peptide synthesizers) while proposals to alter crime-control CCL entries and country groups were withdrawn—firms should map compliance and commenting timelines through December 2025.
Tariffs, Litigation, and Refunds
Supreme Court Fast-Tracks IEEPA Tariff Cases; Importers Eye Refunds
STR Trade Report •September 11, 2025
The Supreme Court will hear consolidated challenges to President Trump’s IEEPA-based tariffs after the Federal Circuit and a D.C. district court found the measures exceeded statutory authority. On an expedited schedule, opening briefs are due Sept. 19 with arguments in early November, raising the prospect of a decision by year-end; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated refunds would be issued if the tariffs are struck down. Importers should preserve potential refund rights by monitoring entry liquidations, seeking extensions, and filing protests where necessary.
U.S. Sets 15% Floor on Japan Imports, Retroactive Refunds
STR Trade Report •September 10, 2025
A Sept. 4 executive order implements a U.S.–Japan trade framework establishing a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese imports, including autos and parts—if the MFN rate is below 15%, the 15% rate applies; if above, the MFN rate controls. The change is retroactive to Aug. 7, 2025, with refunds forthcoming once CBP issues filing instructions; a Federal Register notice will also end reciprocal/Section 232 tariffs on civil aircraft goods (excluding unmanned) and apply at least 15% to autos and parts, while the EO authorizes—but does not yet implement—tariff elimination for certain natural resources and generic pharmaceuticals.
Import Surge Widens July U.S. Trade Gap; Vietnam, Taiwan Hit Records
STR Trade Report •September 11, 2025
The U.S. trade deficit widened 32.5% to $78.3 billion in July as imports rose 5.9% to $358.8 billion while exports were nearly flat at $280.5 billion. Capital goods imports and exports hit all-time highs, “other goods” imports set records, and bilateral deficits with Vietnam and Taiwan reached new peaks as imports from both markets set records for a second consecutive month. The goods deficit increased to $103.9 billion and the services surplus eased to $25.6 billion, reflecting ongoing tariff-policy effects and signaling higher duty exposure and sourcing shifts for importers.
2025 Regulatory Outlook: Export Controls and Customs
Commerce Lays Out 2025 Timeline for Export Controls, AD Changes
STR Trade Report •September 12, 2025
Commerce’s semiannual regulatory agenda outlines a dense 2025 pipeline, with rules expected on cloud/data center services, quantum and advanced-computing/semiconductor items, UAS and large connected vehicles, firearms exports, STA simplification, rare earths/strategic metals, seafood import requirements, and Russia/Belarus sanctions clarifications—plus liberalized defense trade with the UK and Australia. The docket also signals an ANPR to revisit antidumping methodologies (unaffiliated reseller “all-others” rate and average-to-transaction analyses) and a rule on terminating Section 232 investigations, indicating potential shifts for trade remedies. Several actions were recently completed (in-transit shipment rules, standards-setting participation, connected-vehicle import restrictions, Pakistan licensing, peptide synthesizers) while proposals to alter crime-control CCL entries and country groups were withdrawn—firms should map compliance and commenting timelines through December 2025.
New EO Ties Export Controls to Foreign Detentions of Americans
STR Trade Report •September 12, 2025
A new executive order authorizes the State Department to designate countries or territorial authorities as state sponsors of wrongful detention of U.S. nationals. Designation could trigger IEEPA sanctions, export restrictions under the AECA and ECRA, and limits on assistance and travel—creating new compliance exposure and potential licensing impacts for U.S. exporters. Designations may be lifted if detainees are released, leadership or policy changes occur, and credible assurances are provided.
CBP Reshuffles Regulatory Agenda: Manifest Delays, De Minimis Rules in Limbo
STR Trade Report •September 10, 2025
CBP’s latest DHS/Treasury agendas push key rules into mid–late 2025—including ACE export manifests for rail and vessel (October 2025), expanded ACAS data (July 2025), and electronic bond filing (August 2025)—while withdrawing several initiatives outright. Proposals on low‑value shipments and de minimis ineligibility move to long‑term status and may be pulled following the Aug. 29 suspension of commercial de minimis entries. Multiple measures were withdrawn or removed from the agenda, including changes to Section 337 administrative rulings, prior disclosure enhancements, filer-code due process, forced-labor enforcement updates, and USMCA non‑preferential origin rules.
Border Enforcement and Compliance Actions
FDA Flags GLP‑1 APIs; Unverified Imports Face Detention at Entry
STR Trade Report •September 11, 2025
On Sept. 5, FDA issued an import alert authorizing detention without physical examination of GLP‑1 active pharmaceutical ingredients—such as semaglutide and tirzepatide—from unverified foreign manufacturers, with entry allowed only for firms on the alert’s green list. The action follows shortages and increased compounding, with FDA finding 21% of inspected API sites noncompliant and observing evasive registration tactics, heightening detention risk for shipments sourced from China, India, and Europe. Importers and compounders should verify suppliers against the green list and prepare robust documentation to avoid delays and refusals.
CBP, FDA record $86.5M e-cigarette seizure in Chicago crackdown
CBP Media Releases •September 10, 2025
CBP and FDA seized nearly 4.7 million unauthorized e‑cigarettes (MSRP $86.5M) during a weeklong Chicago operation—the largest of its kind—intercepting mostly China‑origin shipments. The crackdown targets “port shopping” and broader compliance failures; 37 importers and entry filers were warned that products lacking FDA premarket authorization will be seized, detained or destroyed, with liability for false statements. Importers should anticipate tighter screening and ensure any ENDS products are among the 39 FDA‑authorized items to avoid disruptions and penalties.
Coast Guard Imposes Conditions of Entry on Suriname Port Calls
STR Trade Report •September 12, 2025
The U.S. Coast Guard will require conditions of entry for commercial vessels arriving on or after Sept. 17 if Suriname was among their last five port calls, citing ineffective anti-terrorism measures at Surinamese ports. Affected ships must complete specified security measures in foreign ports and upon U.S. arrival, which could affect scheduling, inspections, and compliance planning. Suriname joins a broader list of countries under these restrictions, so carriers and importers should review routing and documentation procedures now.
AD/CVD Roundup: China Hexamine Orders Advance; 137% Taiwan Ribbons
STR Trade Report •September 11, 2025
U.S. trade agencies issued final affirmative injury determinations for Chinese hexamethylenetetramine (AD/CVD) and Sri Lankan paper file folders (AD), clearing the way for new orders. Commerce’s reviews yielded notable margins: 137.2% (prelim) on Taiwan narrow woven ribbons (POR Sep 1, 2023–Aug 31, 2024), 26.1% (final) on Mexican OCTG (POR May 11, 2022–Oct 31, 2023), and 5.84% (prelim) on Taiwan stilbenic optical brighteners (POR May 1, 2023–Apr 30, 2024). Importers should prepare for updated cash deposit and assessment rates as orders and final results are implemented.
Market Access, Standards, and Procurement
CBP: U.S. Compilation Sets Origin for Government-Procured Software
STR Trade Report •September 12, 2025
CBP’s final determination in HQ H349776 finds that compiling source code into object code in the United States constitutes a substantial transformation, making a SharePoint/M365 migration application U.S.-origin for government procurement purposes. The ruling reinforces that build location can control origin for software in the context of waivers to certain Buy American restrictions, guiding contractors on compliance and sourcing strategies. Parties-at-interest may seek judicial review by Oct. 8.
USITC Launches 337 Probe Into Vaporizers; JUUL Seeks Exclusion Orders
USITC News Releases •September 9, 2025
USITC opened investigation No. 337-TA-1460 into certain vaporizer devices, cartridges, and components based on a complaint filed August 8 by JUUL Labs alleging patent infringement by NJOY and Altria-affiliated entities. A target date will be set within 45 days; if a violation is found, limited exclusion and cease-and-desist orders could immediately restrict imports and become final after a 60-day USTR review, posing potential disruptions for e‑cigarette supply chains.
Thailand Opens Polypropylene Safeguard Probe; Responses Due Sept 24/Oct 1
WTO Latest News •September 8, 2025
Thailand launched a safeguard investigation into polypropylene imports on 3 September 2025 and notified the WTO on 8 September. Domestic parties must submit evidence by 24 September 2025 at 16:30 ICT, while exporters and parties outside Thailand have until 1 October 2025. A positive finding could bring temporary import restrictions (tariffs or quotas), with potential cost and supply impacts for packaging, automotive, and textile manufacturers.
Ireland backs STDF with €200k to boost SPS capacity in developing countries
WTO Latest News •September 8, 2025
Ireland will contribute EUR 200,000 (approx. CHF 187,400) to the WTO‑housed Standards and Trade Development Facility, bringing its total support since 2007 to over CHF 3.8 million. The funding backs STDF’s 2025–2030 strategy to strengthen SPS systems and unlock agri-food market access across developing regions, with an emphasis on inclusive, gender-responsive projects. With more than 260 projects funded to date, STDF is inviting eligible countries to apply for project and preparation grants—creating new opportunities to meet standards, reduce barriers and expand market access.
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