Tariffs at a Crossroads: Supreme Court Review, China Chip Shift, CPSC Lab Crackdown
NEWSLETTER | Trade Insight AI
Supreme Court Weighs IEEPA Tariffs; Importers Urged to Protest, Not Sue
STR Trade Report • January 23, 2026
A Supreme Court ruling on challenges to IEEPA tariffs could come soon, with justices reportedly skeptical of presidential authority—raising the prospect of refunds of some or all of the hundreds of billions collected in the past year. Citing DOJ concessions and CIT rulings that courts can order reliquidation, ST&R advises importers there’s no need to file pre-liquidation lawsuits to preserve refund rights, but to continue filing protests at liquidation to safeguard eligibility. For companies seeking to litigate now, ST&R stands ready to file suits and seek government stipulations guaranteeing reliquidation if the tariffs are invalidated.
Semiconductors & Strategic Materials
BIS Loosens China Chip Licensing with 50% China/Macau Cap, Testing
STR Trade Report •January 23, 2026
Effective Jan. 15, BIS shifted licensing for certain semiconductors to China and Macau—including Nvidia H200–class and lower-performance chips—from a presumption of denial to case-by-case review. Eligible chips must have been commercially available in the U.S. by that date, and exporters must document domestic shipments and certify sub-threshold performance, adequate U.S. supply, a China/Macau shipment cap at no more than 50% of U.S. end-use shipments, and continued end-user/end-use compliance. Added safeguards require rigorous KYC by consignees and third-party lab testing of each shipment, creating a narrow but regulated pathway for limited China sales.
U.S. Caps Taiwan Tariffs for $250B Chip Investment, $250B Credit Guarantees
STR Trade Report •January 22, 2026
Commerce announced a bilateral deal to cap reciprocal U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese goods at 15%—with zero rates for generic pharmaceuticals, aircraft components, and certain unavailable raw materials—in exchange for at least $250 billion in Taiwanese semiconductor/tech investments in U.S. production and a further $250 billion in credit guarantees. Section 232 duties on Taiwanese auto parts and wood products would be capped at 15%, while future 232 actions on chips would allow tariff‑free imports up to 2.5x planned U.S. capacity during construction and 1.5x after completion, with preferences above those quotas; timing for implementation remains unclear. Taiwan will also facilitate U.S. investment in its semiconductor, AI, defense tech, telecom, and biotech sectors, signaling deeper supply chain integration and market access for U.S. firms.
U.S. Delays 232 Tariffs on Critical Minerals, Eyes Price Floors
STR Trade Report •January 22, 2026
The administration opted not to impose Section 232 tariffs on processed critical minerals and derivatives while it seeks agreements with other countries to address national security concerns. Negotiations may include price floors and other import restrictions, with tariffs or additional measures likely if deals aren’t reached or prove ineffective within six months; Commerce will continue monitoring imports. An October 2025 investigation found the U.S. overly dependent on foreign supplies amid price volatility and weakened domestic capacity.
Enforcement & Market Access
CPSC Revokes 4 Chinese Labs’ Accreditation; Importers Must Retest
STR Trade Report •January 23, 2026
The Consumer Product Safety Commission revoked accreditation for four Chinese testing labs—Shenzhen GTT Testing Technology, Dongguan True Safety Testing, Fujian Berton Testing Service, and Shenzhen HUAK Testing Technology—citing unreliable or falsified reports, concealed loss of international accreditation, and certifications that later failed independent tests. The agency highlighted structural weaknesses in parts of the global accreditation system, particularly in China, and said it cannot rely on self-attestations to ensure product safety. Effective immediately, certificates from these labs are invalid for U.S. compliance; companies that relied on them must obtain new testing from CPSC-accepted labs before importing or selling regulated products, with children’s products subject to strict third-party testing rules.
FDA Tightens Import Alerts on Foods, Cosmetics, Nicotine Pouches
STR Trade Report •January 22, 2026
FDA issued or modified import alerts enabling detention without physical examination (DWPE) for a range of products, including cosmetics, seafood, snack foods, produce, honey, supplements, and nicotine pouches from China, Thailand, India, Poland, Armenia, the U.K., Mexico, and Vietnam. Importers should immediately verify supplier status on red/green/yellow lists and be ready with compliant testing and documentation to secure release and avoid refusals or supply disruptions.
U.S. clears entry of FGV Malaysia palm oil after reforms
STR Trade Report •January 22, 2026
CBP has lifted its withhold release order on FGV Holdings’ Malaysia-produced palm oil and derivatives, allowing entry as of Jan. 15, 2026, if otherwise compliant with U.S. law. The WRO, imposed in 2020 over all 11 ILO forced labor indicators, was lifted after FGV’s remediation under CBP’s modification process—signaling that corrective action can restore market access but ongoing due diligence remains essential. CBP notes broader enforcement in Malaysia’s palm oil and glove sectors since 2019, including more than $85 million repaid to workers, underscoring continued scrutiny of labor practices.
Trade Remedies & Duty Management
AD/CVD updates: Crane deposits, order continuations, 21.1% Taiwan steel margin
STR Trade Report •January 23, 2026
Commerce issued a preliminary affirmative dumping determination on lattice boom crawler cranes from Japan, imposing new cash deposit rates of 0% and 2.79% effective Jan. 16. AD/CVD orders were also continued on welded large-diameter line pipe from Japan (effective Dec. 29, 2025), quartz surface products from India and Türkiye (effective Dec. 18, 2025), and silicon metal from Russia (effective Jan. 2, 2026). Commerce finalized a 21.1% dumping margin in the 2023–24 review of stainless steel sheet and strip in coils from Taiwan; importers should update deposits and assess exposure as duty liability persists.
CITA Receives Cashmere Yarn Short-Supply Bid for Duty-Free Apparel
STR Trade Report •January 22, 2026
The Committee for the Implementation of Textile Agreements received a short supply petition claiming 100% grade A Mongolian carded cashmere yarn (HTSUS 5108.10.8000) is unavailable in commercial quantities from U.S. or Peruvian suppliers, seeking to add it to Annex 3-B of the U.S.-Peru TPA. If approved, apparel made in Peru using this yarn could qualify for duty-free treatment regardless of yarn origin, expanding sourcing options and lowering costs for U.S. importers; supplier responses are due by Jan. 28.
CBP Keeps Q1 2026 Duty Interest Rates Unchanged for Overpayments and Underpayments
STR Trade Report •January 23, 2026
CBP confirmed the IRS quarterly interest rates used to compute interest on customs duty refunds and shortfalls for Jan 1–Mar 31, 2026. Overpayments are 6% for corporations and 7% for non-corporations; underpayments remain 7% for both. The rates are unchanged since Jan 1, 2025, allowing importers to maintain existing assumptions for drawback, protests, and late-payment interest calculations.
Trade Strategy & Multilateral Signals
USTR touts tariff-first 'American System' revival in Davos keynote
USTR Press Releases •January 20, 2026
Ambassador Greer used a Davos keynote to frame U.S. trade strategy as a revival of the protectionist “American System,” asserting that higher tariffs and targeted trade arrangements under President Trump have boosted GDP, narrowed the trade deficit trend, and lifted blue-collar wages. He signaled a continued tariff-forward approach aimed at protecting domestic producers and countering persistent imbalances. For trade professionals, this points to a sustained high-tariff environment and potential for further unilateral measures affecting supply chains and market access.
USTR Greer to tout tariff strategy, meet WTO ministers at Davos
USTR Press Releases •January 19, 2026
USTR Jamieson Greer will attend the World Economic Forum in Davos January 19–22 as part of the presidential delegation, meeting foreign counterparts and business leaders and joining a WTO ministers’ session. He will deliver a January 20 USA House keynote framing tariffs as tools for domestic industry and a fairness-focused global order, followed by a Q&A with FT’s Roula Khalaf and a January 21 Axios House fireside chat. Trade professionals should watch for signals on Washington’s tariff posture and multilateral engagement heading into 2026.
WTO DDG: Use Trade to Ease Water Stress, Reform Farm Subsidies
WTO Latest News •January 16, 2026
At the Berlin GFFA, WTO Deputy Director-General Jean‑Marie Paugam warned water demand could exceed supply by 40% by 2030 and said trade—via “virtual water” flows—can shift water‑intensive production to water‑abundant regions, supporting food security as over half of global output comes from water‑stressed areas. He urged members to push agricultural support reform at MC14 in Cameroon on 26–29 March, aligning subsidies with long‑term food and resource security and building on the Fisheries Subsidies Agreement and the elimination of agricultural export subsidies.
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