Tariffs in Flux, China Probe Escalates, Southeast Asia Opens, and AI Exports Accelerate
NEWSLETTER | Trade Insight AI
Tariff Crosswinds Intensify: Supreme Court Tariff Case, China Controls, Canada Caps
STR Trade Report • October 30, 2025
The Supreme Court expanded argument time in a pivotal tariff authority case—20 minutes each for private business challengers and Democrat-led states, and 40 minutes for the government—signaling close scrutiny of presidential tariff powers. Simultaneously, the U.S. is weighing software-linked export restrictions on China as deadlines near for a Nov. 1 start of 100% additional tariffs and a Nov. 10 lapse that would trigger higher reciprocal duties without another extension. North American friction rose as Trump paused talks with Canada, while Ottawa set quotas on tariff‑free imports of U.S.-assembled vehicles for Stellantis and GM alongside a 25% counter-tariff threat for non‑USMCA‑compliant autos. Editor’s note: The requested Trade Insight AI article was not included in the provided articles; this piece was selected as the most time‑sensitive, high‑impact alternative for compliance planning.
China Policy, Tariff Powers, and Trade Remedies
USTR Launches Section 301 Probe into China’s Phase One Shortfalls
STR Trade Report •October 29, 2025
USTR opened a Section 301 investigation into China’s implementation of the 2019 Phase One deal, citing gaps on IP, forced tech transfer, agriculture, and financial services, plus a $217 billion shortfall in purchase commitments. The agency is seeking public input on possible responses—including new tariffs, import restrictions, or fees on Chinese services—with comments due Dec. 1 and a hearing on Dec. 16. While one report suggests the probe could be dropped if a new deal emerges this week, companies should prepare for potential tariff changes and expanded compliance exposure.
WTO anti-dumping committee reviews global actions, urges prompt notifications
WTO Latest News •October 28, 2025
Members examined new and existing anti-dumping laws alongside semi-annual and ad hoc reports, with 47 members reporting actions in H1 2025, 12 reporting none, and 47 indicating they lack a competent investigating authority. Delegations scrutinized investigation practices and raised concerns about a U.S. action, as the chair pressed for faster, complete reporting via the WTO portal. For trade professionals, the breadth of activity and scrutiny signal a persistently active anti-dumping landscape—monitor filings across key markets and anticipate exposure to provisional and final duties.
WTO Arbitrator Defines EU Countermeasure Level in US Ripe Olives Case
WTO Latest News •October 28, 2025
On 29 October, a WTO arbitrator set the level of countermeasures the EU may request against the United States in the DS577 dispute over US anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Spanish ripe olives. The decision also establishes a methodology for calculating future suspension of concessions if the US re‑applies the WTO‑inconsistent countervailing duty to EU agricultural products. The ruling gives Brussels a clear legal pathway for retaliation, elevating compliance pressure and risk for transatlantic agri-trade.
Congress eyes tariff rollback, China sanctions; advances LNG exports, beef labeling
STR Trade Report •October 28, 2025
By Oct. 31, the Senate will consider S.J.Res. 88 to end the IEEPA national emergency underpinning “reciprocal” tariffs, while lawmakers press Commerce and USTR on Section 232 steel/aluminum hardships and the opaque exclusion process. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee advanced bills to ready sanctions if Beijing moves on Taiwan, speed arms transfers to Taipei, and penalize China for aiding Russia; meanwhile, the Finance Committee set an Oct. 29 hearing for USTR nominees Jeffrey Goettman and Julie Callahan. Additional measures would expand U.S. natural gas exports and tighten beef country-of-origin labeling, signaling potential shifts for energy exporters, retailers, and agricultural supply chains.
Market Access: Southeast Asia Openings and the UK Review
U.S. Strikes Deals with Malaysia, Cambodia; Frameworks with Thailand, Vietnam
STR Trade Report •October 28, 2025
The U.S. announced agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia and frameworks with Thailand and Vietnam, with the first two pending domestic formalities and the latter two to be negotiated and finalized for signature. Partners pledged sweeping market access—Cambodia has already zeroed tariffs on all U.S. industrial and agricultural goods, Thailand will cut about 99 percent, Vietnam almost all, and Malaysia will grant significant preferences—while the U.S. keeps reciprocal baseline rates (19% for Malaysia/Cambodia/Thailand; 20% for Vietnam) but will drop duties on specified product lists. Non-tariff wins include acceptance of U.S. vehicle and FDA standards, streamlined licensing, commitments to avoid discriminatory digital services taxes, and cooperation on IP, customs, SOEs, supply chains, and export controls; Washington may also weigh the Malaysia and Cambodia deals in future Section 232 actions.
U.S. Strikes Reciprocal Trade Deals with Malaysia, Cambodia; Frameworks with Thailand, Vietnam
USTR Press Releases •October 28, 2025
The United States signed Reciprocal Trade Agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia and announced frameworks with Vietnam and Thailand, signaling broader market openings in Southeast Asia. Provisions highlighted by USTR and stakeholders include sweeping tariff reductions for U.S. exports (notably ethanol and food products), acceptance of U.S. auto safety and emissions standards, digital trade and cross‑border data protections, safeguards for common food names, commitments on forced labor, and Malaysia’s participation in the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity. Industry groups across agriculture, manufacturing, and tech anticipate near‑term export gains and supply chain benefits, while businesses should monitor implementation timelines and the transition of the Thailand/Vietnam frameworks into binding agreements.
WTO opens first UK Trade Policy Review; key reports released
WTO Latest News •October 27, 2025
The WTO is conducting the United Kingdom’s first Trade Policy Review on 28 and 30 October 2025, with independent Secretariat and UK Government reports available for scrutiny by the Trade Policy Review Body. The exercise examines the UK’s trade and related policies and monitors system-wide developments, giving trade professionals an authoritative baseline to guide compliance, market access planning, and policy engagement.
Compliance and Customs Operations
CBP Intensifies Enforcement, Puts Traditional Import Compliance Back in Focus
STR Trade Report •October 30, 2025
CBP is ramping up attention on core “reasonable care” requirements—HTS classification, valuation, origin marking, AD/CVD exposure, forced‑labor due diligence, and recordkeeping—despite ongoing tariff and supply chain distractions. Strong compliance programs can speed clearance, improve duty optimization, and mitigate penalties, including serving as a defense against retroactive duty assessments. Importers should reassess internal controls and documentation to align with CBP expectations.
WCO to Consider EN 7.1 Clarifying Transaction Value in June 2026
STR Trade Report •October 31, 2025
The World Customs Organization will submit Explanatory Note 7.1 to the WCO Council in June 2026 to clarify how the “price actually paid or payable” should be interpreted under the WTO Customs Valuation Agreement. EN 7.1 details which payments are included or excluded—covering forms of payment, direct and indirect payments, Article 8 adjustments, relevant WTO decisions, and deductions such as payments unrelated to the goods and post-importation charges—and includes a conceptual framework annex. If approved, it will be published in the Customs Valuation Compendium and on WCO Trade Tools, signaling potential alignment in valuation practices, though the text is not yet public.
COAC Urges CBP to Digitize In‑Bond, Launch Tariff Chatbot, Update Bonds
STR Trade Report •October 29, 2025
At its September meeting, COAC urged CBP to expand automation by pushing duty‑critical dates via electronic manifest/cargo‑release messages, implementing ePTT for all bonded movements and replacing paper Form 6043, and deploying a tariff FAQ chatbot covering topics like tariff stacking, de minimis, and postal channels. It also called for revising continuous bond rounding (skipping $10,000 increments between $50,000 and $100,000), standardizing 5106 physical/mailing addresses, and flagging mailbox‑service locations often misreported as business addresses. If adopted, these steps would streamline filings, improve duty accuracy, and reduce compliance risk for importers, brokers, carriers, and bonded facilities.
FDA Expands DWPE Import Alerts Covering Foods, Nicotine, Therapy Lasers
STR Trade Report •October 29, 2025
FDA issued or modified import alerts that place select foods, nicotine delivery products, and therapy laser systems at risk of detention without physical examination (DWPE), including cocoa mix (Mexico), eggplant with sauce (Lebanon), frozen salmon and peas (Poland), fruit jelly (Taiwan), milkfish (Philippines), mustard greens (China), raspberry drink (Saudi Arabia), scad and shrimp (Vietnam), and therapy laser systems (China). Importers should verify affected firms on red/green/yellow lists, compile evidence to demonstrate compliance, and prepare for intensified surveillance and possible delays; compliant shipments may still be released if documentation overcomes the apparent violation.
Technology and Digital Trade
U.S., Japan, Korea sign AI export pacts to align standards
STR Trade Report •October 31, 2025
The Trump administration signed bilateral agreements with Japan and South Korea to align AI-related regulatory and standards approaches, accelerate R&D, and strengthen national security ties. Both pacts aim to promote AI exports across the full stack—hardware, models, software, applications, and standards—with the Korea agreement also exploring joint AI export initiatives across Asia to build a shared regional ecosystem. For trade professionals, this signals growing standards convergence and potential new channels for cross-border AI commercialization in Asian markets.
Commerce Launches AI Export Program, Seeks Consortia and Offers Financing
STR Trade Report •October 29, 2025
The International Trade Administration has unveiled a program to promote exports of U.S. full‑stack AI packages and is soliciting industry comments by Nov. 27 ahead of a call for proposals from industry-led consortia. Proposals must target specific markets, outline who will build and operate data center infrastructure, specify requested federal support, and comply with export controls and outbound investment rules; selected projects will receive priority access to federal financing and other tools. ITA will back the effort with a new AIexports.gov portal, a dedicated AI export team, and coordination with Commerce and State Department field networks, creating new avenues for AI market entry with clear compliance guardrails.
WTO Subsidies Committee Presses Transparency as 2025 Notifications Lag
WTO Latest News •October 27, 2025
At its 28 October meeting, the WTO’s Subsidies and Countervailing Measures Committee warned of persistently low compliance with subsidy notifications—113 members have not filed 2025 submissions due 30 June, with 80 and 81 still outstanding for 2023 and 2021, respectively. The Committee reviewed multiple subsidy and legislative filings and Jan–Jun 2025 countervailing duty reports from major traders, and noted four members still owe final notifications on eliminated export subsidies. For trade professionals, the backlog reduces visibility into subsidy regimes while intensified scrutiny of EV support, overcapacity, and China’s technology equipment program signals continued trade‑remedy and policy risk.
Related News
October 30, 2025
The History of Tariff Engineering and Why It Still Matters
Read more →
November 6, 2025
Export Snapshot: North America – What U.S. Exporters Need to Know About the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA)
Read more →
October 24, 2025